Wow! The hustle is on folks. This month I have made 6 Final Tables out of 42 tournaments. Not bad at all sans the fact that I finished no higher than 5th in any of them. Nothing earth shattering has taken place lately. I am still playing well overall and for the most part have avoided the bad beats. The online tournaments are still have quite a bit of variance in them though. I am seeing pre-flop pushes with any pocket pair starting at level 1 so the games hyper-aggressive nature continues.

In order to counter this kind of foolishness I have been playing some Omaha Hi/Lo and Stud 8/OB. I enjoy both games and it slows the pace down considerably from my typical holdem tournaments. I spoke to friends on both the east and west coasts and they tell me the cash games have tightened up with the economy. The games still have plenty of players but the pots have become noticeably smaller. Very interesting stuff indeed. I still believe we have a shot at reversing the UIGEA in the senate. Plus, with the rulings in Kentucky and Colorado it certainly helps our case.

Do or Die Poker has hit the ground running this year and has done very well in January. Our readership is growing each month and the e-mails continue to pour in each day. The podcast will begin again starting next month. I have been so busy with the holidays and my wife’s birthday that I just did not have the time to squeeze in a couple. So, from here on out I will try and have at least 2 podcast per month as they have done extremely well for us and helps to get the word out.

Take care of yourselves and have a safe weekend.

After perusing the poker forums this week there has been constant banter about how Tom Dwan has lost millions of dollars online and appears to be on an extremely bad run. While I am far from a Tom Dwan fan I do respect that he is or was one of the better online players. However, his success never translated to live poker sans the one Poker After Dark cash game he won. From what I have read it appears that Dwans never ending ego has written checks that his game cannot cash and now his bank account is considerably lighter.

It is public knowledge that Dwan recently sat down with Patrick Antonious to play Omaha at $1000 / $500 stakes and lost a cool $1 million dollars on Full Tilt. Although this was not related to his “challenge” it should have been a major cooler and warning sign that perhaps he has bitten off more than he can chew. Players like Brunson, Chan, Hellmuth and Mike Matusow have all said that a bad run can kill your bankroll if you do not maintain your discipline. Dwan would be wise to heed that sage advice and back away from the tables while he still has a place to stay and bankroll to play on. The real question is if his ego will allow him to think straight.

Professional poker players old and young are notorious for having extremely poor spending and money management habits. The smart ones learn from the players that go broke after having won millions. The rest are still asking the same question everyday-

“…would you like fries with that?”

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The rumor mill on 2P2 is suggesting that Todd Brunson has gone belly up. Yes, according to several posts on the thread Brunson got heavily involved in the development of real estate on the strip and ultimately the project got canned due to a lack of funds. Talk about bad timing. They are saying that Todd has invested millions into this project in hopes of making a small fortune.

My hope is that he didn’t take every dime he had and invest it into this venture. It’s more likely that Brunson lost a substantial amount of money but I am not so sure he is broke. If he is in tough shape he can always get staked or sell pieces of his action even in this economy. I am not sure if he is a big video poker player or how much he plays online at Doyles Room or what kind of profit he makes.

I figure stepping away from the game for a while might not be a bad thing for him to do. Who knows? Hopefully things come together for Todd Brunson. He is a proven cash game player and beats the high stakes games regularly. With this economy he will need to call on every bit of his skill, strategy and experience to grind it out at the tables with bankrolls being tighter.

Scary stuff!

Brunson in financial trouble?

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The 2009 WSOP will be here before you know it. The new schedule has been posted for the entire poker tournament.  I am not sure if I am going to play in my first one this year or not at this point. The economy is an issue for everyone around the globe. What I do plan on doing is playing several multi-table satellites. I usually do well in them so I figure I should be OK.

Click on the link below to get all of the details:

2009 World Series of Poker Official Tournament Schedule

Another player has entered the online poke training arena. PokerSwat is the latest entry into the world of online poker training. PokerSwat has gathered some of the freshest and most successful online talent and made their thoughts on the game available to subscribers. PokerSwat has a tiered membership structure for potential customers.

A Silver membership is $13.99 per month and includes plus a $23.99 setup fee. Basically this will get you all of the micro-limit cash and tournament videos but no higher. A Gold membership will cost you $19.99 per month plus a $39.99 sign-up fee. This will get you everything up to the mid-level cash games and tournaments. Lastly, there is the Premium membership which will run you $24.99 per month plus a one-time fee of $49.99. This gives you access to all of the videos on the site. Discounts are available for players that sign up for 3,6, and 12 months.

These prices are awfully steep compared to the other poker video training sites. I am not so sure that this is the best way to enter the market as a newbie. However, they do seem to have all of the right players available that have been successful online tournament players. Only time will tell if these guys survive or not. You can find PokerSwat at the link below.

PokerSwat Video Training

If last years debacle wasn’t enough Harrah’s has decided to keep the delayed Final Table concept along with several other changes that will be evident with the 2009 WSOP. To say that I am disappointed would be an understatement. Last years delay was absolutely pointless from a marketing standpoint. Yes, the numbers went up in terms of viewership. However, what they do not seem to understand is that most of the people that watched the Final Table were already fans of the game.

The idea of delaying the Final Table was to bring in NEW viewers and that did not go over very well. Some of the problems were clearly due to the players not making themselves available to various TV shows and media outlets. The other problem is that outside of ESPN we saw absolutely no promotion of the players or the Final Table at all. Harrah’s has to saturate the media with the Final Table participants for this move to make sense in my opinion. If they are prepared to do that along with the players be prepared to be in the public eye then we might have something.

Lastly, a few of the last years Final Table participants have indicated that the delay was too long. Perhaps an abbreviated delay would work out better. It seems that the people that are running the WSOP are not doing a very good job of listening to those that play the game. If this is the best we can do with the No Limit Main Event Championship then we might as well leave it alone.

Other changes we are likely to see involve the re-buy tournaments. 5 of the re-buy tournaments have been removed from this years WSOP.

“Tournament Killer Poker by the Numbers” (TKPBN) has been a very interesting read. This particular book is not for the meek or casual poker player. You absolutely must be a student of the game and very comfortable with mathematical calculations in order to absorb this text. The author, Tony Guerrera, makes a point of letting the reader know that you can “skip” over the math if you are feeling overwhelmed. What he does not tell the reader is that every single page of the book is inundated with math.

So what is there to skip?

TKPBN is geared toward No Limit poker tournaments. The concepts are far from the survivalist nature that you may have encountered in other books. Instead this book teaches you about edges and when it is to your advantage to either take the marginal edge or wait for a better spot when you have a more significant edge on your opponent.

Tony Guerrera covers almost every kind of scenario you can imagine. He discusses short stacked play, tournament structure, probabilities, Independent Chip Modeling (ICM) and a new concept called n-UP. Despite all of the technical jargon and constant calculations Guerrera still manages to get his point across in a way that can be understood. He also takes a few known concepts such as tournament survival and finishing in the top three and extrapolates on how to get there mathematically.

Overall, I give this book a 7 as only the most dedicated will likely find it useful. This book is for advanced poker players only.

You won’t be seeing the likes of Dan Negreanu, Greg Raymer, Joe Hachem or any other Pokerstars Pro’s on Poker After Dark anymore. Pokerstars has banned its player from participating on what is considered one of the best TV poker cash game shows ever, Poker After Dark.

Apparently the European version and how it is marketed has a bit too much of a Full Tilt “spin” to it. Very interesting indeed. I have watched the show since it first came on TV and it never seemed to lean one way or the other. Maybe it’s just me. I don’t know. What I do know is that this hurts one of the best cash game shows on TV in my opinion. As much as I loath Negreanus chattiness I love his game. He can flat out play and cash games are his domain. I also enjoy watching Greg Raymer too. Time will tell I suppose. Let’s hope they can solve this sooner than later.

Are you taking advantage of your Player Notes? If you are not then you should be. Sure it takes a little extra time but it is worth the effort when you find yourself sitting at the same table as the player that knocked you out last night. Good, bad or in-between you should keep some kind of notes on players you play with.

By keeping notes as a general reference on how a player plays you can narrow the amount of information you would normally parse through. This allows you in most cases to come to your conclusions just a little quicker in crucial situations. I cannot tell you the last time I sat down at a table and I didn’t have notes on at least one of the players. I tend to play the same tournaments regularly as do the other players so it only makes sense to profile. You can be as in-depth or general as fits your game.

Player Notes are definitely time well spent.

Poker players in the United States got some great news yesterday when the Kentucky Appellate court ruled in favor of the Poker Players Alliance. This means that the seizure of over 140 poker domain names cannot be enforced and sets the precedent for any other states that were surely watching.

Kentucky was seeking to block all online poker portals from anyone that lives within the states boundaries. Needless to say this was a spineless act spawned from the pits of poker hell.

Not this time!

I gotta tell you guys about a really crazy scenario that I was involved in a couple of nights ago. After a long day at work I decided to get the weekend start right by playing a little poker. I logged into Pokerstars and jumped into the 90 player Sit n Go. after about thirty minutes I am getting short at around $1200 chips and then proceed to pick up a few hands and build my stack to around $5700.

My table is playing awfully weak and I was picking up pots with absolutely nothing and eventually built my stack to $7000. This is when things got crazy.

The blinds are $150 / $75 and I pick up [J][J] in the Big Blind. There is a big raise of $450 from middle position. Everyone else has folded and the action is on me now. Of course having Pocket Jacks in this position it is best for me to simply call and that is precisely the poker strategy I would employ in the hand pre-flop.

The flop comes down [Ts][Ks][Js]

Of course I check knowing that my opponent at the least has [A][K] and could have a big pocket pair. He obliges my intuition and makes a bet of $400. In most scenarios this is more of a peek-a-boo kinda bet meant to cause your opponent to overreact and possibly push his chips in with the worst hand or chasing a flush draw. My opponent has $5000 in chips and I do not want him to fold by any means. It is possible he could have [A][Q] but not likely as he would have pushed his chips in the middle. It is also possible he has a set but unlikely because it would have evoked the same action and his chips would be in the middle.

Ultimately, I put him on Ace King as I had originally thought with the very small possibility of him having a flush draw. I know I am in good position in this hand and I even have redraws if he does have the flush. I feign “thinking it out” as I hit the Time Out button for his benefit only. After it beeps one time I push my chips in the middle. My opponent calls immediately and turns over Pocket Queens! (but does not have a spade)

Are you kidding me?!!!!

Not only am I not happy I am puzzled that he even called my push. Yes, I am ahead in the hand but my friend is still 32% to hit his hand and isn’t quite in tears just yet. The turn brings a blank and the river is no help either. This is when things got stupid. For the next 30 minutes I get railed for being a donkey. While the table found his rants to be amusing I was even more amused when he said, “I was a 4 to 1 favorite!!!” The guy hurls profanities at me non-stop. I have to admit that some of them were actually rather amusing but its always better to be quiet and let people think you are a fool than to open your mouth and prove it beyond all doubt.

I almost fell to the floor laughing at my new friends lack of understanding of how the percentages work. Clearly his thinking would only apply pre-flop with all the money in the middle and no cards having been dealt. He simply could not comprehend that after the flop he was a 3 to 1 dog against my set. After I pushed my chips in he never thought anything through. Never gave me credit for possibly having a flush or having hit a set. Over and over again he kept saying how he was a favorite. Math is a wonderful thing to learn and understand but in the mind of a donkey it can be very dangerous.

Heeeeeeeee Haaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaw!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Some very good news came out of a Pennsylvania courtroom this past Friday when Judge Thomas A. James Jr ruled that poker is a game of skill. This is a major deal to us poker players because it sets a precedence for future cases. Finally someone in the legal system is reading and researching just what this game is all about. There is so much material available to prove that poker strategy is based on having certain skill sets.

The most convincing books for those that are not familiar to the game are probably the ones that prove this by using math. Couple the mathematical theory with good fundamental play along with the intangibles of a strong player and you can easily prove that the game is far from a bunch of random occurences over the long term. Lets hope that things continue to come to the fore in the coming days and months.

Yes I have heard all of the stories and told a few myself but for my money Pocket Aces are still the hand I would most want to have. So how do you explain how they don’t always hold up? Well, that is simply a matter of variance. Time after time I have heard stories about how players Aces got cracked. Sometimes it was totally the fault of the player that lost the hand. Other times it was the dreaded one outer that lost that broke the camels back.

It happens.

One thing that I have learned and preach to players both new and old to this crazy game. There is no such thing as “always” in poker. If unpredictability bothers you then you are playing the wrong game. You may want to try a board game then. Those games have set rules that always apply no matter what the circumstances. Sans the die or dice being thrown for each turn the places on the board are always in the same spot and the rewards never vary.

Poker and the strategy that goes along with it is based on probabilities. This means that even if you are 99% likely / probable to win the hand variance can step in and steal you most brilliant poker move from underneath your feet. It will happen to you hundreds of thousands of times no matter what hand you are playing that is highly favored. You can be a pre-flop favorite, post-flop favorite or even a favorite after the turn but the key word is favorite. That means you are likely to win the hand but do not have a lock on it.

Understanding this will help you to overcome those bad beats and realize that no matter what the best hand, Pocket Aces, is still overwhelmingly the best weapon to take into battle with you. That’s why Pocket Aces are still the king in No Limit. That won’t be changing any time soon.

It appears as if Rep. Jerrold Nadler (D-N.Y.) is going to introduce the Midnight Rule Act in the next session of Congress. In a nutshell the MRA would allow the incoming administration the ability to revoke any of the last minute acts that were hastily pushed through by the previous administration.

True, there is no guarantee that online poker will be part of the items scrutinized but we can only hope.

Click here to read the entire story!

There is nothing earth shattering going on at this point. I donked off a couple of Pokerstars tournaments last night. A little out of the ordinary for me but I got bored and threw caution to the wind. The buy in was nominal so it was hardly a big deal. Lately I have been reading “Tournament Killer Poker by the Numbers” by Tony Guerrera. This book takes a very scientific approach to tournament poker by using complex algorithms and calculations to come to your conclusions. I am not done reading it yet but it certainly strikes me as an ideal book for online players. It covers both cash game and tournament formats.

You shouldn’t be too scared of the math. You can easily skip over it if it is an issue. However, there is plenty of text regarding tournament structure, stack size, level time, and almost every aspect of poker tournaments that can affect the game. This book teaches you how to adjust your game to optimize your chances for that particular structure. I will post a review when I am done.

Recommended Resources

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