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The truth about coin flips

Posted by Curtom | October 12, 2009 | Posted in: Articles, News, Poker Tournament | Comments (4)

I had another good weekend at the poker tables. I made a final table and took down a nice cash in the PokerStars Deep Stacks 90 player tournament. However, I did find one particular scenario peculiar. I was sitting on the button with [A][Q] and the action folded around to me. The tournament had just started and we were on the second level. I raised it up to $120 and the Big Blind re-raised me to $300. Normally I would not get overly aggressive with a hand like [A][Q] in this spot but I had good notes on this particular player and was familiar with his style of play. I decided to get my chips in the middle after thinking about it for a few seconds.

The flop came down [A][Q][X] and my opponent held[9][9]. There was no help on the Turn or River and the fireworks began. For the next hour I was getting railed about re-raising with “only” [A][Q]. The broken and railed player continued to say he had the best hand. This is where we differ in opinion. Having a 2 percent edge is not having the best hand in my opinion. You are pretty much in a coin flip situation. I had put him on [A][J] at best and possibly a middle pair. In my minds eye he would have had to hold [Q][Q] or better to have the best hand. This was not the case nor was it likely and that is the reasoning for me making the move. It was an easy fold on his part. Who’s to say I wasn’t holding [T][T], [J][J] or any other big pocket pair? I hadn’t played a hand in a while.

The bottom line is that small edges are not enough to call big raises with especially early in tournaments. Had the show been on the other foot it’s an easy lay down.

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4 Responses

  1. xeromidas 

    Man, i dont share that move so early. Yes u had notes about him, but ur not 100% acurated of what is he helding
    If u know than he is LAg o meaby a maniac a flat call would it be it better. ur are so much up his range with a lots of advantage

  2. Curtom 

    Thanks for the comment xeromidas.

    I hear ya. Notes are never 100% for sure. The fact of the matter is that I honestly believed he would fold the hand. I didn’t expect him to call when I went over the top. At that point it was a flip for either one of us which is about the best I could hope for.

  3. Joanie B. 

    Hi! New to this blog – nice post. Glad you had a good weekend at the tables.

  4. Curtom 

    Thanks Joanie and welcome to Do or Die Poker.

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